The nation's medical costs will keep spiraling upward even faster than they are now under Democratic legislation pending in the House, a report from government economic experts concluded Wednesday.

Republicans said the report is a warning sign that health care legislation is likely to fall short of President Barack Obama's goal of "bending the cost curve" by slowing torrid rates of medical inflation.

The Obama administration immediately challenged the analysis, saying it is out of date because the House bill is being rewritten to bring costs under tighter control and will be merged eventually with other House legislation and a Senate bill.

"This is old news," said Nick Papas, a spokesman for the Health and Human Services Department.

The report from the Office of the Actuary, which does long-range cost estimates for Medicare, carried an unusual disclaimer, saying that it "does not represent an official position" of Health and Human Services or the rest of the administration.

Unlike previous estimates that have focused mainly on the legislation's impact on the federal deficit, the actuaries' report looked at total costs, public and private, over the next 10 years. It found that the nation's health care tab would increase somewhat more rapidly with the legislation than if nothing is done. The main reason: Newly insured people will seek medical care.

The nation's health care tab, now at about $2.5 trillion annually, is projected to approach $4.7 trillion in 2019 without the legislation.

With the legislation, national health care spending would be nearly $4.8 trillion in 2019.

Health care would account for 21.3 percent of the U.S. economy in 2019, slightly more than an estimated share of 20.8 percent of the economy if no bill passes. Economists have warned such increases are unsustainable.

"With the exception of the proposed reductions in Medicare ... (the legislation) would not have a significant impact on future health care cost growth rates," the report said. Moreover, it's "doubtful" that proposed Medicare cuts will stay in place, the analysts concluded.

Measures in the legislation to reduce cost may take 15 years to 20 years to deliver a savings dividend, the report said. Continued...