Japan GDP revised down, policy response in doubt
Reuters
Dec 09, 2009
By Stanley White
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy grew at a far slower pace in the third quarter than first thought as capital spending fell, but a double-dip recession is seen as unlikely as exports rebound and corporate spending shows signs of bottoming out.
Revised figures also showed that personal spending improved due to subsidies from Japan's previous government. Still, the figures are likely to pressure the new government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to craft new policies for the corporate sector, which is lagging gains in private consumption.
Japan's Democratic Party-led government, in power for about three months, agreed on Tuesday a 7.2 trillion yen ($81 billion) stimulus package that focuses on the household sector by providing support for job seekers and extending subsidies on energy-efficient goods inherited from the previous government.
The Democrats are likely to avoid a return to recession before upper house elections next year. But economists warn that their stimulus measures may not have much impact as there is insufficient new spending and the pace of recovery will be very slow unless further steps are taken.
"I expect the BOJ and the Democratic Party government to do something that will have an immediate effect to keep the Japanese economy afloat," said Yoshikiyo Shimane, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.
"It has been said the Japanese economy bottomed out this past spring, but the July-September figures confirmed that the recovery is very weak."
Revised figures released on Wednesday showed gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent in July-September compared with analysts' median forecast of 0.7 percent expansion and the government's preliminary estimate of 1.2 percent growth.
The U.S. economy also grew more slowly than first thought in the third quarter, but still expanded at a 2.8 percent annualized rate, while the euro zone grew 0.4 percent in the quarter.
On an annualized basis, Japan's economy expanded 1.3 percent, against the government's initial reading of 4.8 percent growth. The median forecast was for 2.8 percent annualized growth.
Capital spending fell 2.8 percent, though preliminary data had shown a 1.6 percent rise, while economists had estimated a 1.5 percent decline.
Corporate spending has fallen for six consecutive quarters, the longest streak since 1976, but the pace of decline has slowed since the start of this year.
With global consumer demand still weak, some Japanese companies are cautious about increasing investments quickly.