Stocks face Dubai, jobs and Ben's Act II
Reuters
Nov 29, 2009
By Leah Schnurr
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dubai, jobs data, Black Friday results and a chance for Congress to throw fireballs at Fed chief Ben Bernanke: The U.S. stock market's path to glory is fraught with peril this week.
If Dubai's debt woes intensify and prompt a retreat from riskier assets, Friday's painful drop will carry through into next week.
Investors also will contend with any surprises from a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's renomination to a second term. The hearing on Thursday could provide fodder for Wall Street at a time when the central bank is facing scrutiny in Congress for its bailout of large financial institutions during the crisis.
In a busy week for data, this Friday's employment report for November will be the main event with job losses expected to decrease from October. Investors also will get an early view of how retailers fared during Black Friday -- generally the busiest shopping day of the year.
Both the job market and consumer spending remain among the weakest links in the economy and could potentially stymie the burgeoning recovery. Encouraging data on that front could fuel the rally that has pushed the Dow and S&P to 13-month highs.
But investors got a cold reminder last week that the recovery will be far from smooth, when Dubai asked to delay payment on billions of dollars of debt issued by conglomerate Dubai World and its main property subsidiary Nakheel.
The shocking move jolted investors with its echoes of the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market that sent reverberations through global financial markets. It was uncertain how much exposure U.S. banks have in Dubai, though fears of a wide impact had ebbed by Friday's close.
"A big part of whether the market's positive trend continues for the next month will partly depend on whether this Dubai World problem does, in fact, mushroom into concerns about the soundness of financial markets," said Michael James, senior trader at Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.
"At least so far here in the U.S. market, that seems to be shrugged off, but we'll see if we get any more details ... that might put a more cautionary spin to the early problems."
DECEMBER CHEER
After recovering more than 60 percent from March's 12-year low, the S&P 500 has churned sideways for most of November as investors look for fuel to keep the rally going.
December, traditionally one of the best months for stocks, has been good for an average gain of 1.7 percent in the S&P 500 since 1950, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.