Don't count on holiday shoppers to fuel the economic recovery.

Sales this time of year are vital to retailers, of course. But they're not nearly enough to drive the economy. Even if holiday sales exceed expectations, the broader recovery is expected to remain weak _ for the rest of the year and beyond.

Here's why holiday purchases won't save the day:

_ They make up a surprisingly small share of the economy. Last year, gift sales were estimated to account for less than 13 percent of the fourth quarter's gross domestic product. And Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, thinks they'll account for about the same share of this quarter's GDP _ the value of all goods and services produced in the United States.

_ Many consumers can't get loans. That makes it hard to buy costly items _ from cars and homes to appliances and jewelry _ related or unrelated to the holidays. Even as the economy returned to growth last summer, consumers borrowed 0.6 percent less from July through October, according to data from the Federal Reserve. Even if holiday sales shine, tight credit will hold back spending in coming months.

_ Unemployment has hit double digits and is expected to remain near or above 10 percent well into next year, far above a "normal" rate of 5 or 6 percent. The Federal Reserve says the rate could hover around 8 percent into 2012. Americans without jobs or fearful of losing them aren't likely to splurge anytime soon.

_ Households are trimming debt. Total household debt, including mortgages, credit cards, autos and other consumer loans, stood at $13.6 trillion in the third quarter of this year, according to the Fed. That's down from $13.7 trillion in the second quarter. Debt reduction is healthy for personal finances but not for economic growth: Consumers pare debt with money they might otherwise spend.

_ Most Americans _ 80 percent _ plan to use cash for all their holiday purchases, according to an Associated Press-Gfk poll. Using cash is a way to stick to budgets and avoid impulse purchases. It suggests consumers are wary of spending freely _ whether for gifts or other purchases.

While holiday sales aren't vital to economic growth, consumer spending as a whole is: It accounts for about 70 percent of it.

And usually as recoveries begin, the economy roars to life as pent-up spending is lavished on cars, clothes, homes and appliances. Consumers become an engine of economic strength.

Not likely this time.

With credit tight and joblessness high, no one expects shoppers to provide enough punch to power the recovery. The government's surprisingly strong retail sales report for November _ and a decent holiday shopping season _ could turn out to be a last hurrah.