Even with hard times assured for public schools and other state-supported ventures, Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine's bid to end tax breaks to help balance an underfunded budget will get nowhere in a Republican-run House of Delegates, the top GOP budget writer said Tuesday.

But even as Republicans, fortified by last month's elections, hold the line against new taxes, increases are virtually assured by some cash-starved local governments after support from the state dries up, an advocate for county governments said.

Del. M. Kirkland Cox, the ranking House Appropriations Committee Republican, told journalists that rolling back tax breaks is tantamount to a tax increase, something Republican Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell has pledged to reject with the support of a Republican-controlled House.

"The biggest thing he (Kaine) could do for us is not put a tax increase in the budget," Cox told about 50 reporters and editors attending the eighth annual Associated Press Day at the Capitol.

"The reason for that is elections have consequences, and in this election, Bob McDonnell ran on a platform of not raising taxes," said Cox, from Colonial Heights.

Later, McDonnell told the same AP journalists' gathering that if Kaine proposes to repeal the car tax cut, it would be a tax increase.

But Sen. Janet D. Howell, D-Fairfax County, said Kaine should include in the budget he submits Dec. 18 whatever best ensures critical state services and protects Virginia's perfect, never-blemished bond rating. If additional revenues are required, she said, so be it.

"I think we're going to really be in a situation where things are so dire we're going to have to cooperate. We're going to have a choice: Are we going to cooperate or are we going to fight?" said Howell, a senior member of the Finance Committee in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Their comments set the stage for the central conflict of the 2010 General Assembly: differences between McDonnell and House Republican allies and Senate Democrats over a new biennial budget for 2010 through 2012 that is already at least $3.5 billion short of its revenue needs.

Kaine, who has already reconciled nearly $7 billion in budget shortfalls since the worst recession in 60 years took hold in 2007, last week said he will propose eliminating the "dealer discount," a tax break merchants got for collecting and remitting the state retail sales tax. He has also said he is considering reversing the cuts made 12 years ago to the car tax.

Howell had noted earlier Tuesday that numerous tax exemptions had been in Virginia law for decades.

"Something I find troubling is that we put tax credits on the books and then we never analyze whether they're working or not," she said.