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Thursday, November 05, 2009
G20 officials to wrestle over economic imbalances
By JANE WARDELL
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Leaders of rich and developing countries pledged at their last summit to even out the glaring imbalances that are weighing on the world economy. Their finance officials now face the daunting task of finding common ground on just how to do that.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 countries meeting in Scotland on Friday and Saturday plan to hammer out a peer review process aimed at closing damaging trade, consumption and budget gaps _ but long-standing disagreements suggest that progress will be torturously slow.

Officials are also likely to repeat their pledge to keep economic stimulus measures in place until a global economic recovery is assured _ even as growth in key markets provides a hopeful backdrop for the meeting at a seaside hotel at St. Andrews, the Scottish university town known as the home of golf.

Host Britain and its Treasury chief Alastair Darling have stressed the need for continued stimulus, reflecting the fact that it remains officially recession, while the United States, represented by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, is already recording renewed growth along with Germany and Japan.

Some countries are more eager to begin sketching out exit strategies to unwind the recent massive government spending, low interest rates and expansion of the money supply that are supporting the world economy. Those disagreements have increased, complicating the search for real reform of the global financial system.

"In what, at least temporarily, is a less fraught environment, the differences between participants are likely to become more apparent than their common purpose," said Monument Securities economist Stephen Lewis.

The officials are seeking to decide what economic data each country will submit for review by the International Monetary Fund, deputized by the G-20 leaders to review contries compliance with agree measures. They will also set deadlines to review the results before G-20 leaders meet again next summer.

Leaders agreed at their September summit in Pittsburgh to subject their economic policies to the scrutiny of a peer review. That process would determine whether each country's efforts were "collectively consistent" with sustainable global growth.

The goal is to avoid repeating problems like huge trade deficits and credit-fueled consumption in the U.S., and massive trade surpluses and savings in China and elsewhere. The flow of cheap credit from China was seen as playing a major role in fueling the U.S. housing boom and subsequent collapse.

The IMF will review the individual country data and submit a report that would form the basis for discussion at the June meeting in Canada.

It is unclear, however, just how much teeth and detail the reports will have _ given governments resistance to outside pressure to change their economic policies.

"Harmonizing targets for these variables is a difficult enough task in one country," said Lewis. "It would seem well nigh impossible to accomplish the same feat for all G-20 members simultaneously."

"I think everybody is on the same page, it's just that page is no longer marked urgent," said Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser at the Ernst & Young Item Club.

"The issue is moved to how we are dealing with this in the long term to prevent a recurrence," he added of the task confronting officials meeting in St. Andrews. "As we've seen, it's very difficult to get any kind of international consensus on factors like remuneration and bonuses."

A French official said Wednesday that France is worried that the momentum behind tightening rules on compensation is flagging and in danger of falling by the wayside, while a Canadian official pushed for more discussion of so-called "living wills" to allow large banks to wind down in an orderly way if they fail.

The British government this week announced the breakup of two major banks that received funds in a state bailout last year, but the United States has not been receptive to suggestions that banks' retail functions be separated from their more speculative ventures. Continued...

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