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Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Treasury market looks to stocks for direction
By JOE BEL BRUNO
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Treasurys edged higher Tuesday as investors had little economic data to trade on and instead focused their attention on movements in the stock market.

Investors have increasingly been taking cues from how stocks perform, moving money into the safety of the government bond market whenever equities become volatile. Stocks fluctuated in another choppy session Tuesday, with Wall Street weighing comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke amid continued jitters about the nation's ailing financial system.

Bernanke said in a speech he is considering a plan that will allow investment banks to get emergency loans into 2009. The central bank began giving Wall Street firms access to its discount window earlier this year to help with short-term borrowing after the near-collapse of Bear Stearns Cos.

Similar comments from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon helped assuage investors' worries about the financial system. That helped the Dow Jones industrials and other major indexes finish sharply higher in a late-session surge.

Jay Mueller, an economist with Strong Capital Management, said Treasurys will likely hold at current levels until investors see a sharp move lower in the stock market.

"Right now, the Treasury market is heavily tied to the stock market, and we haven't gotten any significant macro-economic news this week to change that," he said. "Stocks are bumping around the lows and another leg down won't be a vote of confidence, and would push more money into Treasurys."

He said disappointing readings in upcoming economic reports _ including the Producer Price Index and retail sales data _ will likely drive investors into government debt and away from the stock market.

In late trading, the 10-year note rose 5/32 to 99 29/32. Its yield fell to 3.89 percent from 3.91 percent on Monday, according to BGCantor Market Data. Yields usually move in the opposite direction from prices.

The 30-year long bond rose 18/32 to 98 8/32. Its yield fell to 4.48 percent from Thursday's 4.50 percent.

The 2-year note fell 2/32 to 100 24/32, and yielded 2.48 percent, up from 2.44 percent.

The 3-month Treasury bill's yield rose to 1.84 percent from 1.83 percent late Monday, and the discount rate rose to 1.82 percent from 1.81 percent.

Mueller said bond investors are also watching the commodities market to get a better idea about the economy. Crude oil prices continued to retreat from record highs, falling $4.59 to $136.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after dropping nearly $4 a barrel a day earlier.

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