A politician with disposable influence is important only as long as he retains the power to exert it. Once he commits himself to a policy, his relevance is automatically reduced. There is, therefore, on the part of Iraqi politicians a powerful inducement to remain uncommitted, on any subject, for as long as possible. This is natural enough, but must be recognized and resisted as strongly as Washington can manage. Only a political consensus in Iraq will create an atmosphere in which military success can be transformed into political tranquility.
So the odds are that we are in for a prolonged period of political bargaining among the Iraqis, with each faction trying to advantage itself in the distribution of the country's assets -- notably including oil. Well, there are worse things than political bargaining -- especially warfare. And if the United States can continue, in 2008, the gradual wind-down of military operations that we have seen in 2007, we will be able to count the year as a success.
Politically, the Democrats have long since abandoned their earlier position, so neatly summarized last spring by Senator majority leader Harry Reid as, "The war is lost." They know better now, and their rhetoric reflects it. They will continue to condemn it, but will not demand that it be ended -- or end it themselves, if it comes to that.
The Republicans, conversely, have dodged the worst bullet -- responsibility for a lost war. The military campaign in Iraq continues, as one indispensable part of U.S. strategy in the Middle East. But the American people have never fully reconciled themselves to our involvement in Iraq, and the Republican party must shoulder responsibility for it.