The Democrats' likely solution therefore -- and it has already been foreshadowed in various comments -- will be to announce that the real issue in Iraq is not military success but political success. In other words, never mind what Petraeus may say, the near-total failure of the al-Maliki government to stabilize the country politically compels us to give up the effort.
Just how well that will fly with the American people is an open question. They certainly have grave reservations about the whole Iraq enterprise, but they may not be willing to give up all hope if Petraeus insists that he sees light at the end of the military tunnel.
That will be the point at which Bush may be able to pull a rabbit, if only a small one, out of his hat. If he can achieve a visible success on some aspect of Iraq's political front -- an agreement on oil revenues, for example -- he would be able to claim that this warrants continuing the American involvement there. If the al-Maliki government succeeded in pulling off this, or even some much smaller political triumph, you can bet that the Bush administration would urge it to withhold the news until it is badly needed -- which is to say in the latter half of September, when the congressional debate is at its most furious.
One way or another, it seems clear that a month from now it will be possible to see far more clearly the direction of American policy in Iraq. President Bush may well sweeten the pot with some token withdrawal of American forces, such as Sen. John Warner's proposal to bring 5,000 troops home by Christmas. But the basic decision -- to quit or stay -- is likely to hinge on the occurrence of some favorable political development in Baghdad.