John McCain, who overshadowed his rivals a few months ago, has faded markedly, in part because of his no doubt courageous, but politically foolhardy, support for the immigration "reform" bill, which is anathema to most Republicans.
Rudy Giuliani consistently tops the polls, and it may be that I am underestimating his staying-power, but I am by no means the only observer who thinks that his popularity among Republicans will sag markedly when they realize (as most of them have yet to do) that he is loudly pro-abortion, pro-gay rights and pro-gun control.
Mitt Romney has conducted a flawless campaign thus far, and his looks and clothes are right out of Central Casting for a Republican presidential candidate. But his appearance and performance have been so good that, perhaps unfairly, a lot of people wonder if they aren't too good to be true. Still, the polls have him ahead in the key primary state of Iowa, and it would be foolish to count him out prematurely.
The wild card in the Republican deck is, of course, Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator whose known views on the issues fulfill the fondest dreams of conservative Republicans. But Thompson hasn't even declared his candidacy yet, and the rumpled charm that has made him so popular on "Law & Order" may turn out to be more an artifact of television than a fact of life.
So will America opt for Bloomberg? It hardly seems likely. But his candidacy could easily determine which of the two major-party candidates will win. Say what you will about the confusion, living in a vibrant democratic society sure beats living in a dictatorship when it comes to excitement.