The scramble for the presidency

I was astonished, because Romney in November had only just embarked on his low-key pursuit of the nomination, and wasn't nearly as well known as either McCain or Giuliani. To be sure, his foes had not by then given him the working-over for his supposed "flip-flops" (away from relatively liberal positions on abortion, gay rights and gun control) that allegedly undermined his standing with conservatives early this year. But it was still a remarkable showing, given the political sophistication of the audience doing the voting.

Now we have the results of the straw poll taken at last week's annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington. This is the biggest annual event in conservative politics (6,000 attended this year), and once again it simply won't do to diminish the political know-how of the participants. Since November McCain has dimmed a bit (he was the only one of eight Republican presidential hopefuls who didn't bother to show up and speak), and Giuliani's star has risen higher than ever in the sky. (Polls show him leading the field among Republican voters, and beating Hillary if the Democrats pick her.) Moreover, Romney has by now, as noted above, been heavily attacked for his "flip-flops."

But lo and behold, the straw poll at CPAC showed Romney beating both Giuliani and McCain! The shrewd politicians there were trying to tell the Republican Party something, and it had better listen.