If your experience is the same as mine, the Republicans will almost universally predict that Hillary Clinton will be the candidate. But the Democrats, oddly enough, will be much more doubtful.
For Republicans, Hillary Clinton is just about as offensive as a Democrat can get. But they not only detest her -- they fear her. They know how she steamrolled her way into the U.S. Senate in 2000. They have yet to find any serious Republican candidate willing to stand up and take a licking at her hands when she runs for re-election this year. They know that she is piling up a formidable war chest for her presidential bid in 2008. And they realize, ruefully, that she has, in Bill Clinton, the best campaign manager in the business. Already he has piloted her toward the center of the political spectrum, from her previous position on the far left. Finally, her name-recognition is near-total.To be sure, there are some other Democratic politicians sniffing the winds of 2008. Grover Norquist, a Republican strategist, has dismissed them, however, as "six or seven emasculated senators (who will) pretend to run for president while actually auditioning for vice president," and he is probably right. Sen. John Kerry might regard the vice presidential nomination as beneath him. But former Sen. John Edwards accepted it once, and would certainly accept it again. And so, too, in all likelihood, would such other possible players as former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia and Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa. No wonder Republicans are inclined to think that Hillary will take the 2008 Democratic convention the way Grant took Richmond.
But Democrats -- at least the ones I have talked to -- are less certain. Propose Hillary as their likely nominee, and they will roll the idea around in their minds as if it were an interesting thought that had just occurred to them. They don't reject her; they simply don't forthrightly endorse her. If you press them a bit, asking the reason for their reluctance, they don't cite any of her policy positions as objectionable. Instead, they are likely to say that they're just not certain she could win the general election. And that is, of course, a thoroughly legitimate consideration.
William Rusher is a Distinguished Fellow of the Claremont Institute for the Study of Statesmanship and Political Philosophy and author of How to Win Arguments .
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