(3) In 1992 in a Clinton-Bush debate, the three networks combined (plus those auxiliaries that also scheduled the debate) got 92 million viewers, which gives an idea of the potential audience (lock everybody in a room at night with one television set, and they'll listen to people who want to be president!). Contenders at these debates are moved either by reasoning that they will outperform the opposition, or that they don't want to face the music of declining to debate. In 1972 President Nixon declined to debate George McGovern, and there was obviously no mutiny in the streets, because he proceeded to win every state of the Union except for Massachusetts.
Prowess as a debater is an achievement of Al Gore for reasons earned and unearned. He is fast on his feet, resourceful and surgical. These skills are the product of intellect, wit and experience. But his primary asset is the organic formulation of the public question. On Labor Day he told his audiences that it all comes down to: The Democrats want to spend the surplus on health and education, the Republicans want to spend it on a gift for rich people.
I am a very experienced hand in public debate and I pass on my experience that Gore's Labor Day formulation is simply one more version of the usual polarization: Should the government be in favor of activism on behalf of the needy, or should the government be inert, yielding to private interests?
This is not a formulation a Republican can't ever hope to win -- after all, Reagan and Bush and Nixon won. But the odds tend to stack up on the side of the contender who wants "free" drugs for the elderly, rather than a return of surplus taxation to the rich. Gore has a stake in the size of the audience that is there to be persuaded to act, this November, in behalf of goodness and charity, rather than more money for the Rockefeller class.
Bush can't beg out, but he has the additional problem of an unsuccessful preparation of the potential voter to the implications of the Gore/Democratic/socialist polarizations. The undecided voter hasn't been sensitized to the Republican/conservative position on the imprudencies of welfarism, and Governor Bush reasonably calculates that he can't reliably take on this postgraduate training in a couple of hours of network TV.