Suspicious liberals were convinced in 2004 that George W. Bush would pull off some sort of surprise to distract voters from the bad news from Iraq. A year before the election, a paranoid former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright even floated the crazy suggestion that Bush had kept arch-terrorist Osama bin Laden on ice somewhere -- "Do you suppose that the Bush administration has Osama bin Laden hidden away somewhere and will bring him out before the election?"
In panic over the depressing polls, Obama is now scrambling to find any good news that he can overseas to turn voter attention away from near-10 percent unemployment and record debt.
He just addressed the nation about the long-ago-scheduled troop reductions in Iraq. Suddenly, all Mideast leaders are now equally welcome at the White House in hopes of reaching a dramatic Israeli-Palestinian breakthrough that showcases presidential leadership before the midterm elections.
Neither event is likely to change things in November. Only a headline crisis could rally Americans around their now-unpopular commander in chief and his beleaguered supporters in Congress. What would that entail?
Most probably something like a showdown with soon-to-be-nuclear and widely despised Iran.
Obama ran on criticism of the Bush administration that it had not reached out and talked with Iran's theocratic leadership. Obama did that. He even muted criticism of the brutal Iranian crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations. But Obama soon found that the Iranians considered his outreach appeasement, and so have only increased their breakneck efforts to get a bomb.
Now, everyone from the Israelis to the Sunni Arab nations is pressuring the United States to do something before a radical and nuclear Iran changes the complexion of the entire Middle East. If the erstwhile peace candidate Barack Obama were to confront Iran, conservatives might well support his resolve. Democratic candidates would find a more united nation suddenly far more worried about Mideast Armageddon than unemployment and record deficits. Unlike past October surprises, this time the pro-Obama media would probably be far less cynical in its coverage of presidential motives.
But Iran won't go nuclear in the next two months. So let us hope that the current unpopular administration waits for a while before deciding between the rotten choice of using military force against Tehran and the even worse alternative of a nuclear Iran.