Ronald Reagan left office in fairly high esteem (about 65 percent approval) but has steadily risen after his foreign policy efforts to defeat Soviet communism have become manifest. Bill Clinton runs the risk of moving in the opposite direction . And I suspect he knows it.

 The media in the last week has reported three major political themes to Clinton's memoir: confessing moral fault regarding Ms. Lewinsky; blaming partisanship for the impeachment; and confessing that not catching Osama bin Laden is one of his biggest disappointments.

 The first two points are fairly routine and predictable. The Lewinsky matter couldn't be finessed, so it had to be confessed. On impeachment, he basically took the Nixon path -- claiming he made mistakes, but his partisan opponents abused the constitutional process in going after him.

 Nixon said regarding Watergate and the impeachment process that he gave the Democrats a sword and they used it. Nixon admirers subsequently wrote articles and books suggesting a "silent coup" by the Democrats against him. Similar grumbling can be heard in Clinton's memoir and from his loyalists around town.

 While neither Nixon's nor Clinton's claim of outraged innocence is objectively sustainable, I suspect that they both were sincerely outraged. In any case, putting the best light on the impeachment scandal is probably a sensible political move by Clinton -- although he clearly went rhetorically over the edge in calling impeachment a badge of honor.

 But it is that third point about failing to catch Bin Laden where Clinton probably, and correctly, realizes he is historically most vulnerable. Whether or not Clinton tried as hard as he could, the cruel, objective fact of history is that Bin Laden and his al Qaeda emerged on Clinton's watch. He failed to nip it in the bud, and it has now blossomed into a malignant worldwide danger.

 Such was the historic fate of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who had a successful domestic record of improvements in public housing and a sound fiscal policy. If only he hadn't ignored the rise of Adolph Hitler to dominance in the world, he would have been seen as quite a successful prime minister.

 Similarly, if, as seems likely, the next several decades will see chaos, massive death and disorder flowing from the scourge of terrorism which Clinton failed to extinguish at its inception, Clinton's timidity, temporizing and studied failure to adopt a decisive policy against Bin Laden will become his true historic legacy. The Lewinsky affair will probably be seen less as a scandal than as an explanation for his inattention to presidential responsibilities.