In 1992, Bush faced a serious challenge from Pat Buchanan, who received 37 percent of the New Hampshire primary vote. Buchanan's prime time "cultural wars" speech at the Republican convention (which I enjoyed) became a media scandal for Bush. His convention had been poorly run because he had insisted that his Secretary of State, Jim Baker, resign and run his campaign. Baker resented returning to politics and refused to manage the convention. (Can anyone imagine Karl Rove not doing all in his considerable power to help re-elect George W. Bush next year?) Also, Bush had lost his brilliant and ruthless campaign manager -- Lee Atwater -- to a premature cancerous death, and was left without top-drawer campaign advice and operations.

Meanwhile, entering from the planet Mars, in February, Ross Perot announced on the "Larry King Live" show that he was running for president as an independent. Perot, a fellow Texan, deeply hated President Bush -- presumably for his well-born status -- and proceeded to do all he could to defeat him. By attacking Bush as an independent, he, in the words of Democratic political operative Paul Tully, "departisanized the critique of Bush," thus giving credibility to Clinton's campaign attacks. Then, on the Thursday of the Clinton nominating convention, Perot dramatically dropped out -- giving Clinton a surge of support from 25 percent in a three-way race to 57 percent in a two-way race against Bush. Bush's lackluster campaign took another hit in the October presidential debate when he looked befuddled and checked his watch -- seen as a sign of disdain for the voters. With all that, his campaign was surging in the last week, when the Iran-Contra special prosecutor dropped a bombshell the weekend before the election and indicted former Republican Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger (which falsely implied that Bush might have been guilty of something regarding Iran-Contra). Bush lost the following Tuesday, with 38 percent of the popular vote to Clinton's 43 percent and Perot's 19 percent. Despite the economy, Bush pere would probably have won -- but for almost any of that cataract of campaign misfortunes and incompetence.

The current President Bush's position is almost the polar opposite of his father's. He possesses a united party, no challenger and fervent, almost unanimous, Republican support. He is fighting his heart out for tax cuts and a growing economy. He doesn't have a regional, unthreatening war behind him, but is in the middle of a dangerous and ongoing war that the public supremely trusts him to execute. He is supported by the best political operative in the business, and he has sustained higher job approval numbers, longer, than any modern president. Of course, in politics, anything can happen. But short of another depression, in the next election the decisive element is not going to be the economy -- stupid.