In reality, the end of affirmative action in California and Texas state institutions meant that fewer black students would go to Berkeley or Austin, and more would go to other state colleges and universities in the same systems. There are now more black students in these systems than there were under affirmative action.
A liberal think tank in New York has joined the hand-wringing over the current University of Michigan affirmative action case, currently under consideration by the U. S. Supreme Court, by publishing statistics supposedly showing how the percentage of minority students will decline in selective colleges. But being admitted to a selective college does not make anyone become a better student, any more than joining a basketball team makes anyone taller.
In reality, affirmative action increases the chance that a minority student will fail where the standards are higher, instead of succeeding where the standards are at a level that matches the student's academic capabilities.
Incidentally, when a minority student is admitted to a highly rated college without meeting the standards, do you think that the white student who is displaced to make room is likely to be a Rockefeller or the Aga Khan? Or is the white student who is turned down more likely to be the son or daughter of some working-class family who is kept out so that the son or daughter of a black doctor can get in and make the statistics look good?
Both those who are kept out, despite meeting the qualifications standards, and those who are let in without meeting those standards, are likely to lose from affirmative action.