5. The recession is over because unemployment is not growing as fast.

It's not July's one-month decline in the overall unemployment rate that's so meaningful. It's the declining number of jobless claims each week that shows signs the recession is over. Yes, roughly 550,000 new jobless claims were filed last week, but that's far lower than we've seen this spring. And the four-week average of "continuing claims" is nearly a half million lower than it was in June.

4. The recession is over because the Fed chairman says it is over.

And the Fed Chairman should know. In testimony before Congress on July 21, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke restated his belief that the economy should start growing again in the second half of the year.

3. The recession is over because the stock market says it's over.

The stock market always leads the economy and anticipates earnings. It did so on the downside, starting in August 2007 -- and so it has to the upside, starting in early March. The most recent 11 percent gain in the major indexes since July 8 is surely more than the typical "summer rally." The stock market is trying to tell you something.

2. The recession is over because all that money the Fed created is finally moving into the economy.

The first rule of investing is: Don't fight the Fed! That's a shorthand way of saying that money is what makes the economy move. It's the fuel for the economic engine. Yes, the engine can be "flooded" if too much money is created. But unless an economy has fallen over the cliff (think Depression), a huge influx of money and credit will get things moving again. Bernanke promised he would put as much money into the economy as needed. And he delivered.

1. And the No. 1 reason the recession is over is you're still skeptical that it isn't!

You just came up with a dozen reasons to refute this column, as you were reading it. You thought about the continuing unemployment. You thought about the rising tide of foreclosures and bankruptcies. You thought about the stores and restaurants that are closing everywhere you look. And those are the very reasons that this could be the bottom in the economy.

Because you didn't see the "top" in the midst of all the prosperity at the time, you are equally unlikely to see the "bottom" in the midst of this misery. And that's The Savage Truth.