But then Gramm made two mistakes. He competed in a straw poll at Alaska's caucuses (which would not bind any delegates) and in caucuses (promoted by his local supporters) in Louisiana (which would bind delegates). Both caucuses were scheduled before Iowa's. Gramm's campaign evidently calculated it could use victories in Alaska and Louisiana (where Dole would not participate) to gain the momentum to actually beat Dole in Iowa, and perhaps deliver a death blow to the frontrunner's campaign.

In fact, the two pre-Iowa events gave Buchanan a chance to deliver a death blow to Gramm's campaign.

Buchanan won Alaska. Steve Forbes, who had entered the race in September (after the Ames straw poll) and had enjoyed a Fred Thompson-like surge, placed second. Gramm took fifth.

"I clearly need to win in Louisiana," Gramm conceded to the Wall Street Journal. But Buchanan had the "Big Mo" -- as well as the right message for the state -- and beat Gramm again.

"I have said from the beginning, if you don't get first, second or third in Iowa that you're not going to win the Republican nomination," Gramm told the Des Moines Register. Gramm took fifth. Two days later he dropped out -- before the Southern and Western primaries he thought would give him the nomination.

Buoyed by his Alaska and Louisiana victories, Buchanan fell just 2,866 votes short of beating Dole in Iowa. That gave him enough momentum to edge out Dole a week later in New Hampshire, but not enough to propel him through the states that followed.

This year, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee finished first and second in the Ames straw poll. Romney and Huckabee are now competing for one and two in the Iowa caucuses.

Giuliani now sees Florida's Jan. 29 primary as his firewall. But before that distant day comes the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, where he is running fifth in the RCP average of polls, the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary, where he is running third, the Jan. 15 Michigan primary, where he is running fourth, and the Jan. 19 South Carolina primary, where he is running fifth.

In Iowa and South Carolina, Huckabee leads. In New Hampshire and Michigan, Romney leads. In New Hampshire, Sen. John McCain, the 2000 Granite State winner, is a close second to Romney and on the rise.

The Republican nominating contest is now a three-way race that does not include the national frontrunner.