While Romney’s Campaign is fortunate the vote in Cuyahoga and Hamilton Counties was counted on Super Tuesday, come November 6th they’ll likely have a different opinion. That’s because in 2008 President Obama received 650,638 votes in those two counties alone, which accounted for one-fourth of the total vote he received in beating John McCain for Ohio’s 20 vital Electoral College votes. Furthermore, all but 5 of the 18 counties won by Romney in the 2012 Ohio primary were won by Obama in the 2012 presidential election.
Now you know why polls show Romney’s chances of winning Ohio are fading. But this isn’t just true of Ohio. How about the aforementioned Michigan primary? Romney won Michigan by 32,378 votes over Santorum with about 975,000 total votes cast. Romney’s win was largely attributable to a 31,565 vote margin in one county—Oakland County. In the 2008 presidential election, Obama won Oakland County by 15 points! Romney’s second-biggest margin for victory in Michigan came in Wayne County, where Obama received 74% of the vote in the 2008 presidential election.
Translation: Romney won arguably the two most crucial Republican primaries (and thus the nomination) by winning where Democrats win. Not swing counties, but Democrat counties. For Romney to win the presidency without winning Ohio he’ll have to win Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa (or he can lose Wisconsin, Colorado or Iowa if he wins New Hampshire).
A Republican hasn’t done that since Ronald Reagan’s historic landslide in 1984.
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