Wood says that, so far, incumbents have been closely challenged and it is tough to see the results as anything other than a rebuke of the political establishment.
University of Arkansas political scientist Bob Maranto says U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s problem is that she is a little too liberal for Arkansas, but a little too conservative for the Democratic Party.
“That basic fact leads her to sidestep on a lot of issues, which makes her look dishonest,” Maranto explains. “Interestingly, she probably would have won the primary without a runoff, but a Democrat well to the right of her played spoiler.”
Maranto says Rand Paul’s insurgent-candidate victory over Kentucky secretary of state Trey Grayson just shows you can't beat something with nothing.
“Paul has issues; his opponent just had a resume, along with insider status in a year when that is a negative,” says Maranto.
The insider in the Democrats’ primary in Kentucky also went down in something of an upset.
Anyone taking the pulse of November’s midterms should be cautious. Much of the speculation about a political revolution is an accident of timing. Looking further down the primary calendar, very few opportunities exist for similar upsets.
“Last Tuesday’s victories for outsiders would be much less noticeable if they had occurred months apart, but coincidence conspired to place them together,” says Wood.
That’s not exactly an exciting narrative – so don’t expect the press or either party to latch onto it, regardless of its accuracy.
The long and the short of it all: No fat lady sang for Democrats, and Republicans still have time to figure out that, in an insider-vs.-outsider political year, keeping their races local is the key.