The disconnected and discontented have gravitated towards “Tea Parties” and anti-health-reform protests and cable-news shows such as Fox News’ Glenn Beck; they are re-engaged in politics and have a love-hate relationship with their natural party, the GOP.
While they want to be part of a conservative governing majority for less government, they don’t trust the GOP and are weary of the “establishment” (code for being socially tolerant and fiscally willing to spend taxpayer money).
They despise the eight years of earmarks and pay-to-play that was the Bush administration; they oppose the prescription-drug program that Republicans gave seniors. Yet because of Democrats’ 2006 midterm election gains and 2008 presidential sweep, necessity dictates they must be part of the GOP’s efforts to win in 2010.
But with that comes a price regarding political purity: No longer can candidates have it both ways – running as conservatives while being moderates.
The purity test will be on display in Florida, and the younger, purer Bush family members are set to have an influence.
As House speaker, Marc Rubio was then-Gov. Jeb Bush’s partner in conservative governance. And while Crist once was able to talk conservatively and govern from the middle, that now is a liability as he abandons the governor’s office for a shot at the U.S. Senate; inconsistency and impurity are causing him problems today.
This race probably will be won by the GOP, regardless of the primary’s outcome. Yet the party’s standard-bearer will speak volumes about the party’s direction.
If Rubio wins, a new brand of appealing conservatism – in the mold of Bob McDonnell in Virginia – will be seen as the party’s strategy for victory and the pathway to its 2012 nomination. (Think Tim Pawlenty.)
If Crist wins, the John McCain of 2008 will reign large – and Mitt Romney will have a leg up on the 2012 nomination.