The main losers are states such as Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia, with Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan pretty darn close to the losing side.
The winners in the bill are mainly from the New York City area, New England and the Pacific Northwest.
Many House members who voted for the bill in coal and oil states, as well as those in the agricultural and industrial Midwest, had their arms twisted with political promises.
As the bill now bounces to Senate, members such as West Virginia’s Jay Rockefeller and Robert Byrd, Missouri’s Claire McCaskill, Indiana’s Evan Bayh, Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey and Arlen Specter, Virginia’s Jim Webb, Louisiana's Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas are all on the hot seat – especially Lincoln, who faces a tough re-election next year.
Senators are supposed to take the long view, to figure out the big picture. Yet with cap-and-trade, they may vote with the short-term parochial view for their own political gain.
And that is what may make it impossible for the Senate to secure 60 votes.