Which brings us to Sestak’s huge Obama problem: Next week in Pittsburgh, the president and Specter will address the national AFL-CIO convention; Sestak was excluded. An interesting decision, considering that labor has sent out plenty of mailers to members asking them to elbow Specter on his tepid labor positions.
This is only the tip of the iceberg that Sestak will face in the form of the Obama political machine.
If his primary race appears to be close (and in all likelihood it will), Sestak can expect a ruthless campaign to defeat him, orchestrated by Obama’s best operatives.
He had best be prepared for the Chicago politics coming his way – and run as fast as he can to the “netroots” for support. And he had best be prepared to tell voters and the media about the tactics being used against him by his own party.
If not, we will once again see a Toomey-vs.-Specter race.
Specter, for his part, is counting on Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell to put him over the top. Both politicians may not necessarily be an asset as 2010 approaches, however.
Obama's numbers have fallen and continue to slide. Rendell's numbers have fallen, too; if he allows a state cigarette tax to pass, it will hurt blue-collar voters more than white-collar voters – and that could hurt him with the voting demographic he plans to help deliver to Specter.
Right now Obama is losing ground but Republicans are not gaining any, which makes any assessment premature. Yet one thing to note is Toomey’s maturing as a candidate: He is edging to the center in his campaign, thanks to the Sestak-Specter battle, running more like the guy who once ran for and won a Democrat-leaning congressional seat.
Toomey still will have a tough time. Yet if a sizeable national trend toward the GOP occurs in 2010, then anything is possible; that’s how Rick Santorum won his U.S. Senate seat in 1994.
Interesting times in Pennsylvania. But interesting, in this case, means unpredictable.