Corzine Seeing Red in New Jersey

So what looked like very close elections for Sen. Robert Menendez, Corzine and former Gov. Jim McGreevy basically turned, in their closing days, into blowouts of their Republican rivals.

While New Jersey is reliably Democrat in national politics, it remains a place where Republicans can do well at the statehouse level.

It also is extremely tax-sensitive; taxes there are high, so voters instantly rebel at any attempt to raise them – issues that play against Corzine and his party brand.

Politically, New Jersey is divided north and south; North Jersey swings heavily Democrat, because of a heavy growth in ethnic minorities and highly educated voters who commute into New York. South Jersey is more Republican.

But let's be honest: New Jersey is true-blue, and the last time it went Republican was in 1993, when Christine Todd Whitman came out of nowhere to win the governorship.

That year's election helped to set up the 1994 Republican landslide in Congress – so you have to wonder if a Chris Christie win will send the same signal to Washington.

When Corzine won his Senate seat in 2000 and the governor's office in 2005, he basically self-funded his races with a personal fortune earned as chairman of Goldman Sachs.

This time, thanks to personal losses from Wall Street’s collapse and a nasty divorce settlement, he’s had to devote more time and energy to raising cash, while trying to find a message that eclipses the state’s political corruption and economic downturn.

Corzine's only hope is to increase Democrat turnout in base areas such as Democrat-rich, heavy-voting Hudson County, which carries the same weight as Philly in Pennsylvania, or Cook County in Illinois.

Can he? Not likely, given that the turnout model is skewing to Republicans being motivated and independents being fatigued with his party.

Democrats may justify a loss in Virginia’s gubernatorial race because fewer blacks will vote this time than in 2008 (although they won't admit that).

Corzine losing is different, however – and more of a hit to President Obama and his party brand.