Here’s a breakdown of how each of these anointed senators looks today:
Specter: Making it through the Democrats’ 2010 primary is a big “if.” Beltway Democrats worry about his ability to hold off an aggressive challenge from U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak of Delaware County, who will be well-funded and who doesn’t have a lot of party-primary vulnerabilities – unlike Specter, who has many. Specter needs to assure Dems that his party switch was made on principle, not calculation. And he needs to show that his seniority and his White House support will help Pennsylvanians. The economy will not weigh heavily here; this election will be all about Arlen Specter.
Burris: A disaster. His only hope is to have such a crowded primary that, as the lone African-American candidate, he consolidates African-American support – but the Dems will be careful to make sure that doesn’t happen. Burris as the nominee means the seat is as good as gone for Democrats.
Gillibrand: Had a shaky start but is a talented, tough politician who is likely to steady herself and improve her position; she also has a first-rate team. Her close polls versus Rep. Carol Maloney are largely because she is unknown. But she is a fund-raising machine, will swamp Maloney with money and use that advantage to polish her image. Maloney will run an aggressive campaign and hit her where it hurts – on guns and tobacco – but Gillibrand will prevail. The economy won’t be a factor.
Bennet: Doesn’t seem in any danger of facing a primary, but is likely to have a tough general election because Colorado is a swing state. He needs to build up his image, introduce himself to voters (most of whom don’t know who he is) and show that he can get things done for Colorado. This is where the economy could matter; voters may punish the party in power if things haven’t improved. If voters think the economy is turning around, he’ll have a much easier time.
Kaufman: Ted always was a placeholder; he will pass in favor of Biden’s son, Beau. Yet Republican Rep. Michael Castle is looking strong to win the seat. Castle is running to cap a career and to avoid a tough re-election – and the tide may be with him.