But this is a transformational election year, not a base election year, says Carney. Victory depends on “swingers,” those who have yet to decide, those who will ask themselves on Election Day: “Do I trust my future, my family, to the charismatic, dynamic public official who has yet to put a concrete idea on the table? Or do I go with the man I know will be tough enough -- even if he’s not really willing -- to change completely where the country is going?”
Their conclusions -- not the antics that both campaigns engage in for an attentive political punditry poised over their scorecards -- will determine the election’s outcome.
And until Election Day, McCain will not change. He is who he is and, under the weight of his personality, his stubborn determination and his dedication to country, he always has found a way to prevail, even in the face of defeat.
“One thing that is in John McCain’s favor is that he is John McCain,” says Pennsylvania Republican strategist Charlie Gerow. “Add on the fact that McCain always polls poorly and Obama's primary polls have been consistently inflated, and there is a silver lining to the dark cloud that has become the narrative around this race.”
Gerow thinks this a 5- to 6-point race that Obama still has not won, although he says you’d never know that from the media coverage. “I base my opinions on listening to people,” he insists. “The deal has not been closed yet.”
One-time fierce competitor Mitt Romney, who out-spent and out-organized McCain in Republican primaries, agrees: “It would be a mistake to count out John McCain. I remember when everyone said he was dead and buried during the primaries, but he came roaring back.”
Romney would know: McCain left him behind by the time South Carolina’s primary rolled around, despite never once having the strategy, money or charisma that the former Massachusetts governor possessed.