Chester County will be the hardest. McCain won’t win West Chester, but the rest of the county -- a one-time Republican stronghold -- is persuadable.
All three counties have healthy-sized veterans populaces, with lots of socially conservative labor-Catholic Democrats -- all voters that professor Maranto views as weaknesses for Obama.
Democrat analyst Larry Ceisler admits problems exist for Obama in counties like Washington, Beaver and Fayette, but he is not quite sold on the idea that McCain can win Allegheny, Chester and Bucks.
The unknown factor in Obama's favor is the latest statewide voter-registration number. Obama state director Craig Schirmer issued a statement last week touting 1 million-plus more registered Democrats than Republicans, double the lead of 2004.
Perhaps the bigger argument is that if McCain is posting Bush 2004 poll numbers in Pennsylvania in the waning days of this election, it indicates that Ohio, Indiana and Michigan are already lost to Obama. Pennsylvania is just that small percentage point more Democrat than her Rust-Belt sisters.
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato says his tentative conclusion is that McCain should not allow the money to run in Pennsylvania unless he has unlimited resources, and instead should look west. His argument: If McCain is close in Pennsylvania, then he already is well above 300 Electoral College votes and won’t need it to win.