While Obama may change the map by picking up New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia, Sabato explains, McCain has a better-than-average shot at taking Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Oregon, Wisconsin and maybe Ohio and Michigan.
“Let’s remember that the veep choices may turn a state for each candidate,” he adds, “a state not on either list.”
Still, Weaver thinks that, “without a doubt,” Obama has the ability to win in November.
“I hope and pray that he doesn’t,” he says, “but it is damned near impossible to elect the party in office to a third term in good times, much less when you have a president that is at Richard Nixon numbers.”
If Republicans squander any opportunity to make headway among independents, conservative Democrats and disillusioned Republicans, look for a really blue map to unroll on election night in November.