The South has left the Democratic column, no question.

Of the 11 states of the Confederacy, eight have Republican governors. Those states' senators break 13-9 Republican, but Democratic Senators Edwards (North Carolina), Fritz Hollings (South Carolina), and Bob Graham (Florida) are not seeking re-election, with Republicans having solid prospects to replace them next year. Georgia's Democratic Senator Zell Miller, who won't seek re-election either, sounds like a Republican and says he will vote for Bush. The "solid South" now is nearly as solid for the Republicans as it was for the Democrats of old.

But it's a slur on the South to suggest the reason is race - a slur implicit in all the Confederate flag business. Yes, both parties have their racists. Yet the reasons for the Republicanization of the South have less to do with race than with the values the national Democratic Party and growing numbers of Southerners of both races clearly do not share.

The South exalts civility, community and place. There's also, among many, a strong strain of leave-us-alone and let-us-be. All that translates into, and draws from - let's see:

- Profound support for the military and what it does, in a region boasting more active and retired military - and more military bases - than any other.

- Liberty and democracy - here and abroad, even unto Iraq and the Middle East.

- Hostility to federal mandates and oversight.

- Deeply held beliefs about things cultural - what to say and how to do.

The South's abandonment of the national Democrats flowed naturally from the Democrats' abandonment of the South. The process of abandonment may have begun with race, but the parting of ways has not been race-driven for years. As Dean knows, the Democrats cannot win nationally by writing off the South, but he erred perhaps irretrievably in using a symbol now racially infused.

Dean's compelled apology may - or may not - have ended the matter; surely, it has weakened him within his own party. What's more, the entire episode has highlighted the difficulty any among the Democrats currently hustling for their party's presidential nomination will face in taking the ultimate prize next year. All of which means Dean's slip (combined with Wesley Clark's evident failure to really roll) may be just the opening - the opportunity - Hillary, the Democrats' hottest commodity, has been waiting for to enter the race. The next month will tell the tale.