Reliance on exit polls is only a surface manifestation of what ails the Democrats. Rove was correct and Democrats guessed wrong in assessing the American mood. A symptom was Democratic belief that former Rep. Tom Coburn in Oklahoma and Rep. Jim DeMint in South Carolina were just too conservative to defeat moderate Democrats for the Senate. In fact, each won easily.
The electorate is simply too conservative for the Democrats, as shown by the defeat of Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. The formula of taking the straight liberal line in Washington and talking conservative at home does not work when a Democrat's every move becomes visible as a member of the leadership.
In the wake of Kerry's unimpressive candidacy, Democrats ponder the alternative of Howard Dean's radicalism that is even further removed from the political mainstream. The more attractive course would be a return to the artful Southerner model of Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton -- conservative in style, liberal in substance. But with the Republican sweep in Dixie, there are no such Democrats to choose from -- certainly not Sen. John Edwards, who as vice-presidential candidate exerted no impact in his own state of North Carolina. Sen. Hillary Clinton as the presidential nominee in 2008 would only compound the party's dilemma.
It is Republicans who would be facing internal carnage had Bush been defeated. Karl Rove would have been blamed for catering to the religious right, and the battle to moderate the party would be joined. Instead, the anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, socially conservative agenda is ascendant, and the GOP will not abandon it any time soon.