The end product would be an imperfect Iraq, probably dominated by Shia Muslims seeking revenge over long oppression by the Sunni-controlled Baathist Party. The Kurds would remain in their current semi-autonomous state. Iraq would not be divided, reassuring neighboring countries -- especially Turkey -- that are apprehensive about ethnically divided nations.
This messy new Iraq is viewed by Bush officials as vastly preferable to Saddam Hussein's police state, threatening its neighbors and the West. In private, some officials believe the mistake was not in toppling Saddam but in staying there for nation-building after the dictator was deposed. U.S. military dead then totaled slightly over 100, while now it has surpassed 1,000.
Abandonment of building democracy in Iraq would be a terrible blow to the neo-conservative dream. The Bush administration's drift from that idea is shown in restrained reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin's seizure of power. While Bush officials would prefer a democratic Russia, they appreciate that Putin is determined to prevent his country from disintegrating as the Soviet Union did before it. A fragmented Russia, prey to terrorists, is not in the U.S. interest.
The Kerry campaign, realizing that its only hope is to attack Bush for his Iraq policy, is not equipped to make sober evaluations of Iraq. When I asked a Kerry political aide what his candidate would do in Iraq, he could do no better than repeat the old saw that help is on the way from European troops. Kerry's foreign policy advisers know there will be no relief from that quarter.
In the Aug. 29 New York Times Magazine, columnist David Brooks wrote an article ("How to Reinvent the GOP") that is regarded as a neo-con manifesto and not popular with other conservatives. "We need to strengthen nation states," wrote Brooks, calling for "a multilateral nation-building apparatus." To chastened Bush officials, that sounds like an invitation to repeat Iraq instead of making sure it never happens again.