Robert Novak

WASHINGTON -- The Republican high command ought to be ecstatic over John Kerry's ascent toward the Democratic presidential nomination. His political profile should reassure George W. Bush's supporters: Massachusetts upper class, Vietnam antiwar protester, Mike Dukakis's lieutenant governor, Teddy Kennedy's protege, 95 percent liberal voter. Yet, ever since Kerry won in New Hampshire, Republican concern about President Bush's re-election has grown.

"I can see the pucker factor," said one GOP operative, using the old military slang term for an attack of gut-clenching fear. What he implies is that he and his colleagues are confronting the possibility of another Bush becoming a one-term president. Predictably, Republicans reacted to Sen. Kerry's success by pasting the liberal label on him. Why, then, the pucker factor?

First, because Kerry is an elusive target. Dukakis's old running mate showed in the hours after he was declared the New Hampshire winner that he is no Dukakis. Second, because Bush may be facing the bane of incumbent presidents: lack of credibility. That malady caused Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson not to seek another term and helped defeat Jimmy Carter and the senior George Bush for re-election.

All four of those one-term presidents were plagued by primary election opposition in their own party, a burden that George W. Bush does not bear. No 20th-century president unopposed for renomination was denied another term. Nevertheless, Bush is reeling from a double blow to his credibility.

Failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, a political accident waiting to happen, became the first punch last week when resigned weapons inspector David Kay testified to Congress. The follow-up blow was the White House revelation that the new Medicare plan will cost one-third more than the president predicted (just as conservatives warned).

These setbacks for Bush followed the most ineffective State of the Union address in recent years by a president whose previous efforts were able to utilize that event. He submitted to the bureaucratic methods that turned the speech into a laundry list. His staff permitted the former baseball team owner to further clutter the speech with an irrelevant discourse about players using steroids. In the two weeks since then, the president has not seemed energized on the campaign trail.

Robert Novak

Robert Novak (1931-2009) was a syndicated columnist and editor of the Evans-Novak Political Report.

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