In recent years, “we bought houses with no money down, took on huge amounts of debt and let the booming stock and housing markets perform the heavy lifting of saving,” Gross writes. Well, speak for yourself. But, ironically, it’s exactly the people who behaved badly who are now likely to be bailed out.
Consider somebody who started saving in 1999. He’s been maxing out the IRA and 401(k), year-in and year-out. Meanwhile, his neighbor bought a house he couldn’t afford with no money down. That loan was backed by the government through Fannie Mae.
In recent months, our hypothetical saver has been wiped out. All his market gains from a decade of thrift are gone. The major indexes are below where they were when he started making money on the dot.com boom of the ’90s.
The irresponsible neighbor can now expect help. As Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote this week in The Wall Street Journal, “We launched a broad program to stabilize the housing market by encouraging lower mortgage rates and making it easier for millions to refinance and avoid foreclosure.”
But the frugal investor won’t get a bailout. He has no choice but to sit, watch, wait and hope. There’s no way Washington’s going to make him whole; he’s got to trust Wall Street.
Meanwhile, inflation is certainly coming. With all the money the government is borrowing and spending, and all the money the Federal Reserve and other central banks are pumping out, inflation -- which, like “recession,” became a forgotten word in most people’s professional lifetimes -- is coming back. There’s too much cash sloshing around for us to avoid inflation forever.
This, too, would benefit the irresponsible neighbor. Over the years inflation would reduce the actual amount the neighbor needs to pay, since he’d be paying back dollars that are worth less than the ones he borrowed. It’s a win-win for foolishness. Meanwhile, inflation will further reduce the saver’s nest egg.
During her Meet the Press appearance, Romer added, “over the long haul I’m hoping we’ll come back to probably a higher savings rate, because we know we were at kind of a historic low before this all happened.”
A lovely hope, but there’s no reason to expect it to come to pass. Saving seems like a fool’s game these days. As he presses his big spending plans, the president should be aware that a country that rewards bad behavior will only get more of it. Drink up!