For example, consider the American intervention in Afghanistan. In theory, both O?Neill and Clarke should have opposed that action. After all, Clarke told ?60 Minutes? that Osama bin Laden had long claimed the United States wanted to occupy an Arab nation. He says that, because of our invasion of Iraq, ?al Qaeda and organizations like it, offshoots of it, second-generation al Qaeda have been greatly strengthened.?

And here?s O?Neill: ?For me, the notion of pre-emption, that the U.S. has the unilateral right to do whatever we decide to do, is a really huge leap.?

But we certainly acted unilaterally in Afghanistan. We pre-empted the Taliban government there, before there was ironclad proof it had a hand in the Sept. 11 attacks. And, if our intervention in Iraq was going to anger al Qaeda and make it more dangerous, the terrorist group should have been far more upset by our intervention in Afghanistan, where the Taliban had given al Qaeda free rein.

And the Afghanistan invasion, like Iraq today, was controversial. As New York Times commentator R.W. Apple Jr. wrote in October 2001, ?Like an unwelcome specter from an unhappy past, the ominous word ?quagmire? has begun to haunt conversations among government officials and students of foreign policy, both here and abroad. Could Afghanistan become another Vietnam? Is the United States facing another stalemate on the other side of the world??

 Now, if Afghanistan had actually turned into that ?quagmire,? it seems likely Clarke?s and Suskind?s books would have focused on it as well. The authors could easily have cited their principled opposition to the intervention and taken the president to task for it.

But as things turned out, we quickly drained the swamp, removed the cruel Taliban, broke up many al Qaeda cells and put Afghanistan on a path toward self-government. And because it was a big success for the administration, we?ll hear no more about the intervention from the president?s detractors.

A gambler is always happy to brag about his victories (I had St. Joe?s with the points), but conveniently fails to mention his losses (I really thought Syracuse would beat Alabama). In that way, at least, Vegas actually is similar to Washington.

But let?s remember?in Iraq, the game isn?t over yet. My money says that in five years, Iraq will be a thriving, democratic nation. And we?ll be reading books from D.C. insiders who will explain that they knew it would be.

Bet on it.