As for a sea-level rise, Lomborg writes, we already have experienced a rise of a foot since 1860, without major disruptions, and by 2050 we will have a five-inch rise similar to the rise we have experienced since 1940. Its predictions of increases of 20 feet that are disconcerting, but they go well beyond consensus forecasts -- so it is the climate alarmists who are in the position of "denying" the science.
Of course, the consensus estimates could be wrong. So, isn't it prudent to act now? Technology writer Jim Manzi points out that the long-term benefit of a carbon tax really would be to pressure industry to find technological breakthroughs. Instead of imposing an enormous cost on our economy to try to do this indirectly, it would make more sense to make a major, but still much more affordable, investment -- billions of dollars a year -- in technological research directly.
In the meantime, we and the rest of the world will get richer, putting us in a better shape to adapt should the worst happen. Patrick Michaels of the CATO Institute reminds us that in 1955, a Category 5 hurricane hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, killing 600 people. This year, a Category 5 hit the same spot and killed no one. Mexico was richer, and more resilient, than 50 years ago.
We should take warming seriously, but keep our wits about us and guard the world's economic growth. In a fair fight, climate gradualism should trump climate alarmism.