Successful challengers like Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992 have been characterized by their bold, clear agendas. Why didn't Kerry highlight one at his convention? "They were waiting for the other guy to collapse," says a Bush campaign official. "We're not in the position that Reagan and Clinton were in when they won their re-elections, even if we're very close. But we are not anywhere near the position Carter or Bush were in when they lost."
However you look at it, Bush is indeed vulnerable. Pundits who, in light of that, say he must appeal to undecided voters and not his base are missing something important. The Bush team thinks there are two kinds of undecided voters, those who don't know who they are going to vote for and those who don't know whether they are going to vote. Appealing to the second category by juicing up turnout can be crucial. Bush officials say the 2002 and 1994 Republican midterm victories were both based on turnout successes they hope to duplicate this year.
"Most independents are not motivated by ideology, but by issues," continues a Bush campaign official. "The issues they care about are the war on terror and the economy. Those happen to be the issues our base cares about too. So we can appeal to both." That means the winning formula should be talking substance, and change. The status quo? If anyone wants to defend it, it will have to be John Kerry.