Not surprisingly, Fox News' Carl Cameron along with co-writer Jason Donner declared earlier this week that "Democrats who once felt the party would retain their majority are now worried the GOP's momentum could cost them even more than the six seats necessary for Republicans to retake control." Cameron quotes Democratic strategist Joe Trippi as saying:
"We all thought four were in the bag [for Republicans], but right now, it's looking like the bottom end of that scale isn't four anymore, it's five or six."
The other GOP wins might come from some combination of Louisiana, Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado and - believe it or not - New Hampshire. A WMUR-University of New Hampshire poll last week set the press on Martha's Vineyard a-shutter when it showed former Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown had pulled to within 2 points of incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen there. We'll wait for other polls to be completed to see if that one was a real reflection of the current state of the state of New Hampshire or not. The New York Times, hardly a mouthpiece for the Republican National Committee, published its Senate forecast this week and you could almost hear the tearing of hair in the newsroom as they were forced to write:
"According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 68% chance of gaining a majority."I can't help but think that if the data showed the Democrats' chances of holding on the majority were at 68 percent, the Times would proclaim that something more than a "moderate edge." The Times' bell curve shows the most likely outcome to be between +6 and +7 (51 or 52 seats) for Republicans when the dust clears. Assuming any of this is correct, analysts' proclamation that this will not be a "wave election" might be correct. But, as we move through the back stretch the tide certainly appears to be moving in the direction of the GOP.