Rich Galen

He echoes Chris Cillizza in writing: "The power of President Obama to lead has dwindled to almost nothing."

Finally, there is a guy named Nate Silver who, during the Presidential election, managed a New York Times-affiliated website named 583 - the number of electors in the Electoral College.

Silver is a whiz at statistics and he demonstrated an almost supernatural capability to predict the results of the Presidential election in 2012.

Silver has now taken his talents to ESPN, but he has made an early prediction for the overall Senate results in November: At 60-40 shot that the GOP takes control.

That led the Huffington Post to post this headline: "Nate Silver Predicts GOP Senate Win; Democrats Promptly Freak Out."

I understand we are still a little over seven months away from the election, but as the campaigns begin to polish up their messaging, these data will weigh heavily. Every day that goes by without good news for Democrats is a day they can't get back.

I have been on the other side of these numbers. It is like standing at the edge of the ocean with the waves washing the sand out from under your feet. You have only two choices: Retreat up the beach or wait until you fall over.

These polls may not be predictive, but they begin to have a forward effect because if GOP donors sniff victory and if their Democratic counterparts detect a whiff of defeat, then the cash will flow accordingly.

Rich Galen

Rich Galen has been a press secretary to Dan Quayle and Newt Gingrich. Rich Galen currently works as a journalist and writes at