Rich Galen

Early polling has begun in many states - more than 30 have some form of allowing its citizens to vote before the official election day. I voted in Virginia last week, so feel free to take me off your robo-call list.

I wrote a piece for the Daily Beast earlier this week that included actual reporting, in that I interviewed Romney political director Rich Beeson about the polls showing Obama jumping out to huge leads in early voting.

He told me that the Obama campaign is turning out their high propensity voters first and will then go after lower-propensity voters.

Because of a higher level of intensity among Romney supporters, Beeson said

"We know our high-propensity voters will vote; we're focusing our early voting operation on the lower-propensity voters. We want them to get to the polls or to send in their absentee ballots before Election Day."

If that theory is correct, then early voting tallies may not tell us as much as the Obama campaign would have us believe.

Most analysts now believe it will all come down to Ohio and it its by no means clear how Ohio will go.

According to the University of Virginia's Dr. Larry Sabato, "The truth is that the Midwestern battlegrounds of Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin could still go either way."

The corn belt, the rust belt and the cheese belt might decide this whole thing.

Rich Galen

Rich Galen has been a press secretary to Dan Quayle and Newt Gingrich. Rich Galen currently works as a journalist and writes at