Rich Galen

As we know, only Ron Paul and Romney are on the ballot in Virginia so the only story there would be Paul winning and getting the 49 delegates. There are no write-ins allowed in Virginia so one of them is very likely to get the 50 percent +1 necessary to claim all the delegates.

Santorum's safe state is Oklahoma. Several weeks ago the Gingrich campaign suggested that Oklahoma might be within their reach, but that does not appear to be the case.

In Tennessee, where Santorum had commanded a healthy lead, the race has tightened over the weekend and his victory there is far from a sure thing.

Romney will likely win the Northeastern contests - Massachusetts and Vermont but may not win by enough to grab all the delegates in both.

According to the NY Times, Idaho has the second largest contingent of Mormon voters and, even in this caucus state where Paul will be strong, it would appear Romney has the upper hand.

If Romney does well in North Dakota, look for the campaign to crow about having won in just about every section of the country in the past two weeks: East to west and north to south. If he doesn't do well, the spin will be that it is next door to Minnesota (which Santorum won) and is a caucus state (in which Ron Paul does well).

Alaska being Alaska we may not know the answer until the Spring thaw which will be about July 15th.

There may only be half the number of primaries and caucuses in 2012, but it's still fun to try and handicap the results.


Rich Galen

Rich Galen has been a press secretary to Dan Quayle and Newt Gingrich. Rich Galen currently works as a journalist and writes at Mullings.com.