Rich Galen

On the other side of the aisle at this point in the proceeding four years ago Hillary Clinton had an insurmountable lead over Barack Obama of 48 - 21. John Edwards was third with 12 percent.

On caucus night, Obama won with 38 percent of the votes, Edwards and Clinton tied with about 30 percent each.

Note Obama's percentage. It strengthens Newt's argument.

Sixty-two percent of Iowa voters wanted someone other than Barack Obama four years ago. The only reason he won was because Hillary and Edwards almost precisely split 60 percent of the votes.

If Newt can avoid splitting the votes of Conservatives in Iowa, he might well win there on January 3.

Because I am not a complete novice, I also wrote this as part of that same May 20 MULLINGS:

Can he recover? Of course he can. One of Newt's strongest points has been his ability to ride out a rough patch and emerge to drive down the highway at full speed.

As Bette Davis once almost said, "Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy ride!"

Rich Galen

Rich Galen has been a press secretary to Dan Quayle and Newt Gingrich. Rich Galen currently works as a journalist and writes at