• It is no small deal to refuse to back the Speaker of the House when he or she is of your own party. There are committee assignments you will never get. Redistricting help you will never see. Paris Air Shows you will never attend. And fundraisers which will be thinly attended if the Speaker’s people put out the word they are keeping track of who is helping whom.
• The timing of all this is unfortunate as the August recess is scheduled to begin on Monday August 8. That means, because there won’t be votes on Friday the 5th, the Members will head for what they hope will be the friendly confines of their home Districts as soon as the House quits on Thursday.
• As we have discussed before, the seeds of the Great Political Tsunami of 2010 were sown during the August recess of 2009 when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Barack Obama sent Democrats home to sell an unformed, yet still unpopular, health care proposal.
• Republican freshmen do not want to have footage of them being shouted off the stage at town hall events; of being picketed in front of their district offices; or, being chased from the American Legion Auxiliary French fry stand at the county fair.
• To help them better understand what may be at stake, it was reported yesterday that representatives of Standard & Poors will be on Capitol Hill Thursday to brief freshmen members on the dangers of a drop in America’s sovereign credit rating.
• It seems to me that bringing S&P in to talk about credit ratings is a little like asking Kim Jong Il to send some folks to Iowa to explain the benefits of centralized planning for agriculture.
• My guess? Boehner’s folks will come up with a new plan that meets (or exceeds) the $1.2 trillion target, it will go to the floor on Thursday and to the horror of every single studio host on every single cable news network, it will pass.
• Then it becomes Harry Reid’s problem in the U.S. Senate.
• When the bill goes to the Senate floor I’m going to do a parody of that speech by Macbeth:
It is a tale told by an idiot,
Full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing.
• Just to be clear: I’ll be the one telling the tale.
• On the Secret Decoder Ring today: Links to the actual Hamlet speech (and a video of Kenneth Branagh delivering it), the CBO scoring story, and the S&P piece.
Also another photo from my trip to Paris last month and a Catch Caption of the Day.