On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani's support nationally has gone from 34% in September to only 25% in this week's poll. Among the rest of the GOP field, Mike Huckabee has gone from essentially an asterisk to 16% in this poll putting him, according to Gallup "essentially in a tie" with former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) and McCain at 15% and former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) at 12%. [Reminder: I am a paid consultant to the Fred Thompson campaign.]
Of more interest to the political pros are the state-by-state polls which are not conducted with the same regularity as the national polls.
On the D side, Clinton - who has been leading in Iowa as well as nationally - saw Obama leap frog over her in the most recent major poll which was conducted by the Des Moines Register. According to the Register Obama is now the choice of 28% of Iowa Dems while Clinton's national slide is mirrored in Iowa going from 29% in the previous poll to 25% in the survey release last Sunday.
Among Rs, Huckabee - who has spent about $12.73 total - has bulleted ahead of Romney - who may have spent some $8 MILLION in Iowa alone - by a span of five percentage points: 29% to 24%. In the previous Register poll, Huckabee was at 13% and Romney was at 29% meaning there has been a net change of 21 percentage points.
Does that mean Huckabee and Obama will emerge from Iowa on January 3 to march, with the "Big Mo" five days later, into the New Hampshire Primaries?
No. It is quite possible that John Edwards will make a late run in Iowa on the D side and Thompson (or even Ron Paul - remember where you read it first - may be the surprise of the Republican caucuses.
The only thing the Official Political Pundits have gotten correct about all this is: Even less than 30 days out from the Iowa Caucuses, no one knows what is going to happen.
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