It ain't over till it's...

  • But, let's not get crazy. This election season has produced a dreadful environment for Republicans. It is unlikely that the GOP will maintain its 14 seat majority in the US House.

  • It is also unlikely that the Democrats will win anything like 30 seats which would give THEM a similar majority in the next Congress.

  • The most likely outcome is that the Democrats will win control of the House by a margin of six or seven seats - a net win of 20 or 21 seats.

  • The next most likely outcome is that the GOP will hold onto control by three or four seats - a loss of 11 or 12 seats.

  • It is possible that Tuesday will produce the Democratic blowout which has become the insider's view here in Washington, but that would surprise me.

  • Remember that in 1998 the GOP went into election NIGHT thinking it had a lock on a pickup of 8 - 10 seats. They lost five.

  • The difference was Democratic turnout which was not picked up in the pre-election polling.

  • It is quite possible the same thing will happen on Tuesday - in either direction. Ken Mehlman and the Republican National Committee have a highly organized (and highly touted) turnout operation. Howard Dean and the Democratic National Committee have been spending millions of dollars to catch up.

  • We'll see who's program actually turns out voters.

  • As we talked about a couple of weeks ago, if you want to be successful in politics you have to stay in the fight until the final citizen goes to the final polling place and casts the final vote.

  • On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: A link to the Pew Poll. Also for those of you in the Washington, DC area a link to a great opportunity to participate in a local March of Dimes event. A Mullfoto from New Jersey which reminds us why we are not all that fond of New Jersey and a Catchy Caption of the Day.