Rich Galen

According to a Sunday NY Times piece, "In fact, just a few months ago, Democrats envisioned significant gains in New York, perhaps picking up as many as four seats, possibly even five" one of which is an upstate districted held by Republican John Sweeney.

Reporter Raymond Hernandez wrote, "A recent poll released by the Siena Research Institute showed Mr. Sweeney with a 19-point lead" which is somewhat outside the margin of error.

Three out of CT; four more out of NY. The Dems thought they might only need 8 more seats as they moved west and south.

But now, it looks like they'll still need 15 coming out of New York and only about 23 contested seats left. Now, they have to do better than play .500 ball. It's up to about .650.

Add to that, there are two seats in Georgia - Democratic seats - which are, according to the LA Times, in play. "Bolstering their chances are new district boundaries drawn up by the first GOP-dominated Georgia Legislature since Reconstruction," wrote reporter Richard Fausset.

If the Dems lose just one out of those two, then they have to win 16 seats everywhere else and the contested list is down to 21. Sixteen wins out of twenty-one races would be a .762 winning rate - better than three out of four.

The electoral roller coaster on which the country will be riding for the next seven weeks will keep our attention. But the Democrats' ride to the top of the US House now looks like a much steeper hill to climb.

Rich Galen

Rich Galen has been a press secretary to Dan Quayle and Newt Gingrich. Rich Galen currently works as a journalist and writes at