I love the fact that I am out of the Washington, DC metropolitan area fairly frequently. The Washington, DC metropolitan area is filled with people like me. People like me talk to other people like me, picking up scraps of information, half-baked (and totally unsupported) theories from other people like us, then we race each other to be the first on CNN of FNC to say it out loud so that reporters will hear it, write about it, and declare it to be: TRUTH.
This is the most efficient system for garbage recycling in the whole of human history.
I am not immune to the polls. I read them. I talk to the pollsters. I see the look on their faces as they describe the electoral terrors which are impending a mere six months distant.
Then I go out into the real world, and see and hear things which are far different.
As a theory-baker of the first water, I am fully capable of thinking of a theory, rolling it around on my intellectual tongue, tinkering with it to give it just a dash of history and a pinch of insight and then foisting on … you.
I have been saying for some time that while I don't doubt the polling numbers - when they're all within a couple of points of each other, they are probably good numbers - but I think they are measuring the wrong thing.
When I go out into the non-Washington world, I do not see Republicans hiding under their beds, or staying away from GOP events as would be the case if the base were overwhelmingly angry or disheartened.
I was the GOP party treasurer in Marietta, Ohio 45750 during the Watergate era. People who had held fundraisers in their homes were denying they had every heard of the Republican party.
That was a bad time. According to the Clerk of the House website, in the 93rd Congress (1973-75) the party division was 243 Democrats and 192 Republicans.
When the House convened in January of 1975 the results of the previous November's election had decreased the GOP numbers to 144; a loss of 48 seats.
Two years later Republicans lost yet another seat, so in the 95th Congress - four years after Watergate - they found themselves with only 143 Members to the Democrats' 292.