Forecasts for Weeks of July 28th, August 4th

Peter Morici
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Posted: Jul 27, 2014 12:01 AM

Here are Professor Peter Morici's forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 28

July 28

Pending Home Sale Index - June

103.3

103.9

104.2

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

13.0

11.4

12.0

July 29

S&P Case/Shiller Index - May

Twenty City Y/Y

9.9

10.8

9.9

Consumer Confidence - July

85.5

85.2

85.5

July 30

ADP Employment Report - July

236K

281

235

GDP - Q2 (a)

2.7%

-1.0

3.1

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.8

1.3

2.0

July 31

Initial Unemployment Claims

300K

284

305

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.5%

0.3

0.5

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

1.9

1.8

Chicago PMI - July

63.3

62.6

63.2

Augsut 1

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

231K

288

233

Private

236

262

Core Private*

196

218

Manufacturing

16

16

15

Unemployment

6.1%

6.1

6.1

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

Auto Sales* - July

16.80M

16.99

16.70

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Personal Income - June

0.4%

0.4

0.4

Personal Spending

0.4

0.2

0.4

PCE Price Index

0.2

0.2

0.2

Core PCE Price Index

0.1

0.2

0.1

Real Personal Spending

0.2

0.2

Markit PMI Manufacturing Index - July

57.5

57.3

56.0

ISM (Mfg) - July

55.7

55.3

56.0

ISM Prices

59.5

58.0

59.0

Construction Spending - June

0.5%

0.1

0.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)

81.7

81.3

81.5

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.