This is only the first phase of a plan which fully would be implemented
by 2030. By then high-speed trains would run from San Diego to north of
San Francisco. (Some have even suggested hooking Sacramento into the
system.) Well and good, but the proponents claim they would not need to
request more money at that point. Similar claims were made by the
British and French when they built the Channel Tunnel. Yet they have had
to seek more money twice already and the end is not in sight. Already
the estimates to build and operate the high-speed rail operation are
double the original projections. The Reason Foundation claims that the
Rail Authority has underestimated expenditures by $30 billion because
the Authority has not fully taken into account the added expense of
building "in the world's most active geological zone and erecting sound
walls to abate noise and other nuisances."
The Rail Authority also claims that 65 million people would ride the
system annually yet that is far higher than either France or Japan, both
of which are more rail-oriented.
In addition, the Rail Authority is promising a one-way ticket for $70
but that is far lower than the New York-Washington route of Amtrak's
Acela trains and other routes the world over, many of which are shorter
than the LA to San Francisco route.
Were I a voter in California, as strong an advocate of rail as I am, I
doubt I could bring myself to vote for this project. Were the State in
decent fiscal shape I would almost certainly support the project.
Somewhere in the USA a high-speed system needs to be built. However, the
projections of cost and ridership and revenue need to be realistic.
California is just too broke to afford to build this system at this
time.
Unlike the Reason Foundation, I do not think that this project would be
a white elephant. Millions would ride it but the projections being sold
to the voting public are way off base. If California's fiscal condition
were in order then would be the time to bring this proposition back.
Passage this year is far from assured. If Californians hear the real
cost of high-speed rail I would not be surprised if they ended up where
as I have - namely, "No" on Proposition A.