University of Virginia political guru Professor Larry Sabato said
normally Obama could expect to be elected given the current
circumstances but given this volatile year any day could produce a game
changer, so voters should not draw any conclusion yet.
Fourteen percent of the electorate is said to be undecided. Should that
group break strongly toward one candidate or the other it could produce
a landslide for Obama or a very close election with McCain having a
slight edge. And then there are the Congressional elections. Voter
outrage may continue through November 4. If so, how would it translate
in the elections? Would voters turn out of office those who supported
the bailout? That is unclear. Or could voters resent those who voted no
on the ground that something had to be done and they rejected that
opportunity?
Before all this turmoil I had suggested that we might have some
surprises on Election Day. It is impossible to know how exactly the
outrage on the part of the electorate will translate into votes. We do
know that the Democrats have a superior ground game (voter ID and
turnout) just as the Republicans had a superior ground game in 2004
which resulted in that party gaining four Senate seats. Now on paper the
Democrats appear to gain a minimum of five Senate seats. That is unless
voter outrage changes that outlook.
Pack a good picnic brunch and prepare for an all-night marathon election
night and the morning after. Unless we have a landslide in the making we
are likely to have a marathon election with many confusing results. Why
not? Think of what already has happened this year.