University of Virginia political guru Professor Larry Sabato said normally Obama could expect to be elected given the current circumstances but given this volatile year any day could produce a game changer, so voters should not draw any conclusion yet.
Fourteen percent of the electorate is said to be undecided. Should that group break strongly toward one candidate or the other it could produce a landslide for Obama or a very close election with McCain having a slight edge. And then there are the Congressional elections. Voter outrage may continue through November 4. If so, how would it translate in the elections? Would voters turn out of office those who supported the bailout? That is unclear. Or could voters resent those who voted no on the ground that something had to be done and they rejected that opportunity?
Before all this turmoil I had suggested that we might have some surprises on Election Day. It is impossible to know how exactly the outrage on the part of the electorate will translate into votes. We do know that the Democrats have a superior ground game (voter ID and turnout) just as the Republicans had a superior ground game in 2004 which resulted in that party gaining four Senate seats. Now on paper the Democrats appear to gain a minimum of five Senate seats. That is unless voter outrage changes that outlook.
Pack a good picnic brunch and prepare for an all-night marathon election night and the morning after. Unless we have a landslide in the making we are likely to have a marathon election with many confusing results. Why not? Think of what already has happened this year.